A New Analysis of Tempo, Parity and Quantum Effects Based on a New Methodology for the Reconstruction of Brazilian Birth History Using the 2000 Demographic Census
Jose A. Ortega, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid
Adriana Miranda-Ribeiro, Cedeplar / Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais
Vania Candida da Silva, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais
Jose Alberto M. de Carvalho, Centro de Desenvolvimento e Planejamento Regional (CEDEPLAR)
This paper presents an innovative methodology for the reconstruction of birth histories, applied to the Brazilian case. We construct a birth history, from 1986 to 2000, based on the 2000 demographic census microdata. This reconstruction is well suited to the application of the Kohler & Ortega method to disentangle tempo, parity, and quantum effects of fertility during the Brazilian strong fertility decline. This type of methodology is important due to the absence of good birth histories in Brazil, the low quality of birth registration, and the usefulness of fertility intensities by parity and age to understand the dynamics of fertility decline. Furthermore, demographic censuses have a large sample size, which allows the estimation of separate intensities by several characteristics. If this method proves to be robust, it will be a major advance in the study of tempo, parity and quantum effects throughout developing countries with good demographic censuses microdata.