The Effect of Modernization on Desired Fertility in Egypt

Angela Baschieri, University of Southampton

Using a conceptual framework that borrows notions both from the economic theory of fertility and social interaction theory, this paper assesses the relative importance of social and economic modernization at individual and community level in explaining the geographical differential in desired fertility in Egypt. Using 2000 Egyptian Demographic Health Survey and an up-to-date map of land cover in Egypt, this paper provides an application of an advanced methodology which uses a combination of the multilevel modeling and Geographical Information System techniques and shows how the GIS techniques facilitate the construction of several variables representing level of economic modernization as land use, road density and urbanization. This study also analyzes the effect of current family composition on desired fertility in Egypt and shows the desire of Egyptian society to have at least two children and at least one boy.

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Presented in Session 87: Comparative Perspectives on Population Growth, Fertility, and Contraception